AUTHOR: Harshpreet Singh, student at Indian School of Public Policy, New Delhi, India
In the modern era, traditional physical warfare has taken a backseat to alternative forms of conflict such as proxy wars and infrastructural wars, which involve cyber-attacks, espionage, economic sanctions, and support for insurgent groups. India, a nation surrounded by hostile neighbors, faces a constant threat to its national security. Hostile countries like China and Pakistan have been actively supporting insurgent groups and terrorist organizations that have carried out attacks within India’s borders. India’s complex regional dynamics and geographical location make it particularly vulnerable to these non-physical wars, forcing the country to adopt a multifaceted approach to address the challenges.
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a prominent example of how economic and infrastructural development projects can be used to exert influence and gain leverage in other countries. As a significant regional power, India is wary of China’s expanding influence in the region and the impact of the BRI on its economic and security interests. Additionally, Pakistan’s long-standing support for terrorist organizations and insurgency in India’s border regions has resulted in numerous cross-border conflicts and tensions.
Belt and Road Initiative
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), also known as One Belt One Road (OBOR), was launched by China in 2013. The plan intends to connect China to the rest of the globe by building a network of roads, railroads, ports, and other infrastructure.
The Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road are the two key components of the BRI. The Silk Road Economic Belt wants to connect China with Central Asian, European, and Middle Eastern nations, while the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road aims to connect China with countries in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa.
The BRI encompasses many infrastructure projects, including railways, roadways, ports, airports, and pipelines. These projects are intended to boost connectivity and commerce between China and other nations while also encouraging economic growth and development in these countries. However, international communities have flagged serious concerns against this project.
Worldwide Concerns
- Debt Sustainability
The BRI’s debt trap refers to the scenario where participating nations accumulate substantial debts with China due to loans taken out to finance BRI projects. These loans are typically provided by Chinese state-owned banks or other financial institutions, with limited transparency and without proper feasibility studies. The debt trap becomes problematic when participating nations cannot repay their loans, resulting in a situation where they become heavily indebted to China. This can have significant economic and political consequences for these nations, as China may use its debt as leverage to advance its own interests.
One of the most notable examples of the BRI’s debt trap is Sri Lanka. In 2010, China offered to fund a project to construct a deep-water port in Hambantota, located in southern Sri Lanka. The project was finished in 2017 at the cost of $1.5 billion, and the Sri Lankan government was incapable of repaying its debts to China. As a result, Sri Lanka was compelled to surrender control of the port to China for 99 years in 2017. Additionally, Sri Lanka agreed to lease 15,000 acres of land to China to establish a special economic zone surrounding the port
- Environmental Concerns
The infrastructure initiatives within the BRI, such as transportation systems and seaports, carry a significant potential for environmental harm if not designed and executed with caution. Despite China’s pledge to cease constructing coal-powered plants abroad by 2021, almost 50% of BRI expenditure has been allocated towards non-renewable energy investments. Additionally, the establishment of dams along the Mekong River may result in reduced water flow downstream, thereby impacting the livelihoods of millions of people who rely on the river. Furthermore, the implementation of water infrastructure projects in water-scarce regions could intensify water scarcity and heighten the risk of water-related conflicts.
3. Geopolitical Concerns
China’s BRI forms an integral part of its wider ambition to expand its sway and dominance in the surrounding areas. By making significant investments and fostering economic integration in nations that hold strategic importance to China, such as Pakistan and Myanmar, there are apprehensions that the BRI could be employed as a tool to secure greater leverage over these countries and extend its influence in the region.
Labor Standards and Human Rights
The implementation of BRI projects often disregards the rights and well-being of local communities and workers. Chinese companies, for instance, have been known to employ their own workers rather than hiring locals, resulting in poor working conditions and exploitation of the latter. The BRI’s collaboration with authoritarian governments and human rights violators in some participating nations raises concerns about the region’s adherence to democratic principles and norms, potentially jeopardizing them. An illustration is the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, criticized for employing forced labor from China’s Xinjiang region, where the Chinese government has been accused of mistreating and imprisoning Uighur Muslims. The use of forced labor contravenes international labor and human rights laws.
Implications on India
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) poses several challenges to India’s national interests. Firstly, the BRI’s development of ports and other infrastructure projects in countries strategically located near India’s coastline, such as Pakistan and Sri Lanka, raises concerns about China’s strategic intentions in the region. China’s heavy investment in these projects could be used to monitor Indian naval activity and project military power in the Indian Ocean. Additionally, constructing a railway line in Nepal, which passes through areas close to India’s border, has further heightened India’s security concerns.
Moreover, the BRI’s financing by China’s state-owned banks and strict lending conditions that lead to debt traps, pose a threat to India’s economic interests. If countries participating in the BRI are unable to repay their debts, China could gain significant leverage over them and potentially displace Indian companies previously involved in infrastructure projects in these regions. Furthermore, the BRI’s emphasis on Chinese companies in the bidding process could create an uneven playing field, making it difficult for Indian companies to compete.
The BRI’s notorious China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) passes through Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, a sovereign territory of India. India has expressed concerns about its territorial integrity being violated, and the CPEC’s construction has raised alarms about increased militarization of the region. This development could exacerbate existing tensions and conflicts between India and Pakistan, both of which possess nuclear weapons. India and China also have disputed territorial claims, particularly along the eastern sector of their shared border, which has led to several military confrontations.
Finally, the BRI aims to create a new global economic system dominated by China, which could weaken India’s regional influence if it is not part of this system. The BRI’s emphasis on infrastructure and connectivity projects in neighboring nations could also create obstacles to India’s efforts to enhance regional connectivity and integration. Moreover, the BRI’s association with failed and authoritarian regimes in participating countries could lead to conflicts with India’s traditional allies in the region. For example, China’s support for Pakistan and its involvement in Sri Lanka’s civil war, which India has criticized, could result in tensions between the two nations.
India’s Response to the BRI
India has implemented various measures to counter the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). One noteworthy initiative was the launch of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) in collaboration with Russia and Iran back in 2002. This corridor aims to link India with Europe and Russia using a network of roads, railways, and ports, thereby circumventing Pakistan.
Furthermore, India has been promoting the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor(AAGC) in partnership with Japan. The AAGC’s objective is to encourage economic growth and development in Asia and Africa by implementing infrastructure and connectivity projects. India and Japan have been cooperating to identify potential projects and attract investments for the initiative.
India has also revealed several infrastructure development projects such as the Sagarmala project. This project’s objective is to upgrade the ports and maritime infrastructure in the country. Additionally, India has proposed the development of the Chennai-Vladivostok maritime corridor to connect India with Russia using a maritime route.
Apart from these measures, India has been intensifying its relationships with neighboring nations. To foster connectivity and economic development in the region, India has established various agreements with countries such as Japan, Australia, and the United States. Additionally, India has been actively engaged in regional organizations like the QUAD, the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) to encourage regional cooperation and integration.
In response to China’s expanding influence in South Asia, India has implemented various measures. These include extending development aid to its neighboring countries and fostering economic cooperation and connectivity in the area. Additionally, India has undertaken infrastructure initiatives in the region, such as the construction of railways and ports.
However, instead of rejecting the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) outright, India could have taken a more diplomatic approach towards it. India could have engaged in constructive dialogue with China to express its concerns and presented alternative suggestions for infrastructure development in the region. Furthermore, India could have implemented economic reforms that would have made it more competitive in the region and invested in its own domestic infrastructure. Additionally, India could have utilized its soft power more effectively by promoting its culture, language, and values and investing in educational and cultural exchange programs with neighboring countries. By doing so, India could have fostered stronger ties with other nations in the region and countered China’s assertive approach, ultimately contributing towards a more stable and harmonious regional order.
Other Expansionism Threats
China’s String of Pearls strategy: China’s String of Pearls strategy is an effort to expand its maritime influence in the Indian Ocean region by building a network of ports and naval bases. This strategy includes the development of ports in countries like Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Myanmar, which are strategically located near India’s coastline. These ports can be used by China to project its military power and increase its influence in the region, which poses a significant threat to India’s national security.
In response, India is implementing a multi-pronged strategy to counter this threat. This includes building ports in strategic locations, installing extensive Coastal Surveillance Radar (CSR) systems to track Chinese warships and submarines, deepening defence ties, and carrying out regular military exercises with the navies of the US, Japan, and Australia.
India’s Act East Policy has also helped it make important strategic agreements with Southeast Asian nations. India has built and is accessing ports in Iran, Indonesia, Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Oman, as well as accessing the Changi Naval Base in Singapore. India has also built Coastal Radar Networks in Bangladesh, the Maldives, Sri Lanka, Mauritius, and Seychelles, and plans to install more systems in these locations. Additionally, India has developed a strategic naval relationship with Myanmar and has made military cooperation agreements with Japan, Australia, and the US.
Pakistan’s support for terrorism: Pakistan’s support for terrorist groups that operate against India is another significant threat that India faces. These terrorist groups are supported by Pakistan’s military and intelligence agencies and are responsible for carrying out attacks on Indian soil. Pakistan’s support for terrorism is a constant challenge to India’s national security and has led to several military conflicts between the two countries.
India’s strategy to counter this threat involves a combination of diplomatic, economic, and military measures. Diplomatically, India has been trying to isolate Pakistan by building alliances with other countries and exposing Pakistan’s support for terrorist activities. India has been urging other nations to put pressure on Pakistan to stop supporting terrorism. Economically, India has been trying to hurt Pakistan’s economy by reducing trade and implementing economic sanctions. India has also been trying to disrupt the flow of funds to terrorist groups by tightening regulations on money laundering and terrorist financing. Militarily, India has been taking preemptive measures to prevent terrorist attacks by conducting surgical strikes on terrorist camps in Pakistan. India has also been investing in its defense capabilities, including modernizing its armed forces and improving border security.
China’s territorial claims: China’s territorial claims over Indian territory, particularly in the eastern sector of the India-China border have been a significant bone of contention. China’s claims over Indian territory have led to several military standoffs between the two countries, including the recent Galwan Valley clash in which 20 Indian soldiers were killed.
India has taken a geographic approach to address the threat posed by China. For example, in Ladakh, India has deployed additional military forces along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and invested in infrastructure development, such as roads and airfields, to enhance its defensive capabilities. In addition to these efforts, India has also engaged in diplomatic talks with China to find a peaceful resolution to the ongoing border issue.
Similarly, in Arunachal Pradesh, India has focused on improving the region’s infrastructure and connectivity, by constructing new roads, bridges, and airfields. India has also reinforced its military presence in the area and increased surveillance to closely monitor Chinese activities along the border. Additionally, India has strengthened its partnerships with neighboring countries like Bhutan and Myanmar to counter China’s growing influence in the region.
Nepal’s territorial claims: Nepal’s territorial claims over Indian territory, particularly in the Kalapani region, are a significant threat. Nepal has claimed that the Kalapani region belongs to it, which India disputes. This territorial dispute has strained the relationship between the two countries, and Nepal has recently released a new map that includes the disputed territory.
The two countries have held multiple rounds of talks to try and resolve the issue, with both sides expressing a desire for a peaceful resolution. India has also emphasized the importance of maintaining strong bilateral ties with Nepal and has provided economic and development assistance to the country. In addition to diplomatic efforts, India has also taken steps to strengthen its military presence along the border with Nepal. This includes building infrastructure and deploying troops to better monitor the border and prevent any potential encroachment by Nepalese forces.
Conclusion
India is currently encountering an array of challenges in its attempts to tackle China’s Belt and Road Initiative as well as other emerging expansionist threats. These challenges possess considerable implications for India’s strategic and economic interests. In response, India has chosen to adopt a comprehensive approach. However, the response of India to these challenges will demand sustained efforts in the long term due to the complex nature of these threats. Despite this, India’s approach reveals its unwavering commitment to safeguarding its national interests while promoting regional stability. As India navigates these challenges, it must remain proactive in its efforts to create strategies and partnerships that can protect its interests while maintaining its leading power status in the region.
*“The views expressed in the article are author’s personal and are not endorsed by the Global Policy Consortium (GPC) or assumed by their members”
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